Since its launch on July 19, 2022, the Nasdaq IFED-LV index has achieved a 14.96% annual return compared to only 9.41% for the S&P 500 Low Volatility index. The outperformance was achieved across a period that witnessed a wide array of economic events and conditions, which supports the strategy’s robustness.
Given current economic conditions, including recent Fed rate adjustments, political uncertainties, and broader market challenges, Nasdaq IFED-LV stands out as an option for investors seeking risk-mitigated equity exposure. By leveraging Fed policy signals and maintaining a focus on quality stocks, the IFED strategy offers a dynamic approach that aligns with shifting market environments, positioning it as a resilient alternative to conventional low-volatility portfolios.
With its success, investor interest in the IFED strategy has grown, leading to new IFED-related investment products including structured notes from UBS. The IFED strategy aligns portfolio composition with shifts in market conditions to avoid out-of-favor investment exposures. The approach appeals to investors based on both its success and its underlying economic rationale. Total returns for Nasdaq IFED-LV since its launch are shown in Exhibit 1.
Exhibit 1. Nasdaq IFED-LV Total Return Since Launch, 7/19/2022-10/31/2024
The IFED Strategy
The IFED strategy grew out of a 30+ year research program that was designed to achieve tenure and acclaim for the strategy’s academic founders. It relies on 12 firm financial metrics to select stocks that are optimally positioned to prosper in the market environment identified by the IFED indicator. The IFED indicator assesses Fed policy signals to identify impending shifts in market conditions and classify conditions into one of three environments, expansive, restrictive, or indeterminate.
The basic premise of the IFED strategy is that the optimal investment style depends on market conditions. The strategy advocates that the factors that drive stock returns adjust with shifts in the market environment, which explains why the various investment styles go in- and out-of-favor. The IFED strategy avoids that boom-and-bust cycle by reallocating portfolio holdings when an impending shift in market conditions is signaled.
EIA’s peer reviewed research demonstrates that using Fed policy actions to classify market conditions is superior to other approaches. The Fed controls interest rates and the money supply, which are crucial market determinants. Furthermore, the Fed shifts policy based on its “expectations” regarding inflation and economic activity. Thus, the IFED strategy incorporates a forward-looking mechanism that considers impending conditions in the economy.
Nasdaq IFED-LV Performance History
EIA launched Nasdaq IFED-LV on July 19, 2022. The index is a large-cap, low volatility US equity index. In selecting and weighting stocks, the index applies the IFED strategy to a low volatility universe of large-cap US equities. Performance results for Nasdaq IFED-LV are presented in Exhibit 2 for the index’s live period and for a 25+ year full period. The full period includes the 27 months of live performance combined with about 23.5 years of backtested results.
Exhibit 2. Nasdaq IFED-LV Performance, Live and Full Period
Nasdaq IFED-LV produced somewhat higher annual returns across the live period (14.96%) versus the full period (12.67%). In contrast, the benchmark yielded similar, but lower, performance during both periods. Thus, Nasdaq IFED-LV produced a somewhat larger alpha during its live period (5.55%) relative to its alpha during the full period (3.69%). In both cases, however, the annual alphas were positive and substantial.
The robustness of the IFED strategy is confirmed by several aspects of Nasdaq IFED-LV’s performance history:
the consistency of outperformance across its short- and long-term history establishes the effectiveness of the approach. The strategy’s continuing relevance is supported by the strong near-term performance, whereas the long-term evidence supports the strategy’s longevity and general applicability.
the large positive alphas produced from a low volatility stock universe supports the strategy’s efficacy in identifying holdings that are optimally positioned for prevailing economic conditions. Low volatility stocks are typically viewed as offering few opportunities for return enhancement.
the outperformance occurs in 58 to 88% of the alternative holding periods, indicating the IFED approach identifies systematic patterns, rather than relying on a few extreme cases to produce outperformance. Furthermore, the outperformance consistency generally increases with a lengthening of the holding period, which further establishes that the strategy captures established patterns in returns.
Finally, the period examined includes a myriad of events and conditions that rigorously challenged the robustness of the strategy. Specifically, the period witnessed a financial crisis, a pandemic, strong bull and bear markets, rising and falling interest rate environments, along with both extremely accommodative and constrained monetary policies.
The Consistency of Outperformance
EIA’s IFED strategy is designed to capture alpha based on established, long-term return patterns, which requires the IFED portfolios to diverge from the typical market-cap weighted index. Therefore, tracking error and short periods of underperformance are expected as markets adjust to changes in economic conditions and the return drivers adapt. To examine the time-series performance of the IFED strategy, Exhibit 3 shows rolling 6-month alphas for Nasdaq IFED-LV since 1999.
Exhibit 3. Rolling 6-Month Alphas, Nasdaq IFED-LV, 1999 - 10/31/2024
The plot in Exhibit 3 corresponds with the IFED strategy design, which is to prosper when normal return patterns prevail, while avoiding significant underperformance when unusual return drivers dominate. Note that, except for the few years immediately following the 2008 financial crisis, the underperformance levels are typically small and relatively short-lived in comparison to the outperformance. The financial crisis temporarily disrupted normal security return patterns, particularly for what were traditionally considered low-risk financial stocks.
The exhibit shows that periods of underperformance are generally followed by periods of substantial outperformance. These observations align with EIA’s research showing that the return patterns underlying the IFED strategy are occasionally obscured by unusual events or irrational investor pricing; however, normal patterns are ultimately restored after short transition periods. Finally, note that the alphas are not concentrated in any time frame--large positive alphas are observed throughout the 25+ year period.
The IFED strategy relies on 12 firm financial metrics to select stocks with quality features that are positioned to prosper in prevailing economic conditions. The strategy favors stocks with sound financials, which allows the strategy to avoid periods of significant underperformance when unusual factors drive returns. Exhibit 4 presents risk statistics for Nasdaq IFED-LV for the live period and full period.
Exhibit 4. Nasdaq IFED-LV Risk Statistics
The IFED strategy is designed to prosper when normal return patterns prevail by aligning portfolio constituents with impending market conditions. The strategy’s success in this regard is reflected by the upside capture values reported in Exhibit 4. In both the live period and full period, Nasdaq IFED-LV captures well over 100% of the upside movement in the S&P 500 Low Volatility index. In contrast, Nasdaq IFED-LV captures only 71% (90%) of the S&P 500 Low Volatility index downside movement in the live (full) period. Thus, the IFED strategy out-maneuvers the typical low volatility approach in both up- and down-market periods.
The data indicates that much of Nasdaq IFED-LV’s standard deviation and tracking risk is due to upside deviation, i.e., abnormal strong performance. The upside deviation values are considerably higher than their downside counterparts, especially during the live period.
The IFED strategy incorporates several features to alleviate downside risk and avoid introducing a reliance on speculative elements:
the strategy always remains fully invested in equities. The strategy shifts allocation across equities to maintain an optimal alignment between portfolio holdings and market conditions. Thus, the strategy is not a speculative market timing approach.
the 12 financial metrics used in selecting portfolio constituents include several quality measures. The strategy favors stocks with financial strength and stability. Hence, when unusual factors drive security returns, such as a pandemic or financial crisis, the strategy does not suffer abnormally.
the strategy shifts holdings when market conditions change to avoid going out-of-favor. Reallocations have occurred less than twice per year on average. Factor investing, e.g., value and growth, is a static approach that experiences extreme boom-and-bust cycles over time.
the strategy selects stocks based on firm fundamentals, and thus, avoids emotional considerations and investor euphoria when selecting stocks. The IFED strategy typically underweights glamour stocks whose prices reflect a significant speculative component. Investor emotion and euphoria can shift quickly producing large losses as quickly as gains.
Nasdaq IFED-LV Relative Performance
Exhibit 5 reports long-term performance through October 2024 for Nasdaq IFED-LV relative to several “low risk” factor indexes.
Exhibit 5: Nasdaq IFED-LV Relative Performance (through October 31, 2024)
Nasdaq IFED-LV beat the spectrum of low-risk competitor indexes in all periods exceeding 2 years. Furthermore, it beat the S&P 500 Low Volatility and S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats in the 1-Year period and all but two of the indexes in the 2-Year period. The consistency of superior performance across indexes and time frames provides further validation for the efficacy of the IFED strategy vs traditional factor-based strategies.
Final Wrap-up
With the Federal Reserve’s recent interest rate move, the political and fiscal uncertainty, and concerns about the strength of the U.S. economy, investors are searching for alternatives that offer the opportunity to participate in the equity markets with a reduced risk profile. There are several investment alternatives to accommodate investors in this regard; however, only Nasdaq IFED-LV offers a dynamic mechanism that is tied to Fed policy signals. Nasdaq IFED-LV adjusts portfolio composition across the lower risk spectrum of stocks such that its holdings maintain appropriate alignment with whatever the environment offers.
In summary, Nasdaq IFED-LV tops the competition when one considers the combination of short-term live performance, long-term back tested performance, economic validation, and downside risk protection.
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